Innovation to the fore

The globalised fertilizer industry of today is underpinned by almost two centuries of steadily enhanced scientific knowledge of human and plant nutrition, and matched by a spirit of inventiveness in the fields of production and the use of resources. These are the factors that largely put paid to the Malthusian theories which held that while unchecked population growth was exponential (1>2>4>8), the growth of the food supply was arithmetical (1>2>3>4). The Green Revolution showed that a long-term growth in human population could be achieved, and not only has that world population grown by 50% from 4 billion in 1974 to 6 billion by 1999, and to an expected 7 billion by the end of this year, but that population is also enjoying in ever more regions of the world an enhanced diet in terms of protein and variety.

Despite these achievements, there is increasing recognition among scientists, political parties and other decision-makers that mankind has now reached a fresh cross-roads. Indeed Malthusian theories have made a come-back in certain circles, and there are those who contend that the basic concept of population growth eventually outstripping resources is still fundamentally valid. The notion of Peak Phosphorus, for example, may be said to fall into the category of Neo-Malthusian.

The term Malthusian can sometimes have pejorative undertones, hinting at excessive pessimism, inhumanity or an inaccurate understanding of the future. Few of the agronomists or production engineers who have helped to propel the fertilizer business during the past decades would have devoted much intellectual energy to the merits of this debate: “Can-do” has been their by-word over the years, and there is no lack of that same spirit in the world fertilizer industry of today.

The world appears to be advancing towards a global population peak of around 9.5-10 billion by 2050. The issue not merely how to feed that increased population, but how we allocate, use and sustain the resources of land, water and raw materials that are harnessed to provide this diet. The continuing scaling upwards and evolutionary fine-tuning of present techniques and technology will be required, but radically new paths must also be sought. A few false trails may inevitably be followed in such a quest: it is a virtual truism that “Success always starts with failure.”

The challenge of finding sustainable ways of providing for the growing world population comes at a time of fundamental change in the concept of science itself. Whereas major advances in science had once involved little more than a keen and a vivid imagination, the process of invention today is a more convoluted one. It has been observed at a time when approximately 3,000 scientific articles are published per day, the percentage of human knowledge that one scientist can absorb is rapidly heading towards zero. The typical science paper or patent is now produced by a large team. Likewise in the commercial field, teams of engineers and/or marketing experts, rather than single visionary individuals, now account for most innovations.

Finding (and funding) new ideas is also getting more expensive. Some observers comment that scientific and technological innovation is becoming an issue of organisation. Commercial organisations may shy away from funding R&D work that promise few short- or medium-term returns. Nor do governments have deep pockets, and in much of the western world, governments seek to appeal to their electorates by promising lower taxes. This in turn can lead to cuts in the funding of scientific projects. Risk and enterprise become early casualties in such a climate.

One notable facet of the SYMPHOS Symposium was that academics shared the podium in equal measure with fertilizer industry experts on technology and commerce. This is a welcome development, as the grand challenges faced by mankind and society – be it climate change, energy consumption, food security or combating poverty – are transnational and cross-disciplinary. Addressing them requires collaboration between universities, commercial businesses, NGOs and other decision-makers, together with the pooling of resources at pan-national levels. This very pertinent point was made by Prof. Jean-Marc Repp and Prof. David Drewry of the European University Association.

Their conclusion applies to the increasing recognition of participants in the international fertilizer industry of the fundamental need for more research and greater innovation: all money spent on improved collaboration between stakeholders will add value by bringing people together, sharing knowledge and creating synergies.