The parents of Danica May Camacho have extra cause for joy and pride. Their baby girl was born on Monday, 31 October 2011 in the Philippines and has been heralded as the world’s seven billionth baby. According to the United Nations, it has taken just 12 years for the world’s population to rise by an extra one billion, from the 6 billion that was estimated in 1999. In the space of barely 40 years, Planet Earth has seen a doubling of its population, and the rate of growth is expected to continue apace, to peak at just over 9 billion by 2050.
An uncertain scenario may prevail beyond that date, with some pundits suggesting the world population will turn into an ageing one that will fail to renew its numbers, and a period of overall population decline could be heralded.
For the moment, however, let us celebrate baby Danica May Camacho and what she represents. It is particularly apt that she should have been born in Asia, as this is the most populated of Earth’s continents, with over 4 billion inhabitants or 60% of the world population. The world’s two most populated countries – China and India – constitute around 37% of the world’s population.
Asia was just a few generations ago notorious for its vulnerability to famine, but we have seen in barely the span of a lifetime its virtual elimination from the region as countries throughout the continent found ways of nourishing their peoples. The impact of the Green Revolution involving the introduction of high-yielding cereal varieties and fertilisation technology is well known, laying the foundations for unprecedented levels of food security and the enhanced agricultural productivity that sustained a wholesale shift of population from the rural areas to new cities.
Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1 billion people or 15% of the world’s population. The fortunes of the continent have contrasted with those of Asia, particularly among the Sub-Saharan countries, where civil strife has exacerbated the region’s vulnerability to famine. Although many countries in Africa have the potential to feed themselves, agriculture has underperformed and significant pockets of malnutrition remain. Infant mortality rates are the highest in the world.
Not everyone is rejoicing at this latest population milestone. There is no lack of scientists who say that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in the usage of land, water and mineral resources poses the worst of threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population was ratified by 58 national member academies in 1994, viewed the growth in human numbers with alarm and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of greenhouse gases, global warming and population, were aggravated by population expansion.
Others say that Malthusian arguments of mankind’s very limited ability to sustain significant population rises remain valid. While over the last 40 years we have seen a three-and-a-half-fold increase in food production (in no small part due to the contribution made by fertilizers), and that food supply had thus far been able to keep up with population and hunger, new pressure points are emerging, notably in the price of food. Some doomsayers have suggested that food riots in Africa and other regions were the harbinger of a worsening scenario, being a reflection of the fast growth in urban populations.
Although it brings social dislocation and often poverty, the shift of surplus labour from a formerly inefficient and over-crowded agricultural sector to the cities may generally be viewed as a positive development, ultimately making agricultural more efficient, while the cities become a much stronger market for farmer’s produce, while newly urbanised become ever aspirational in their demand for goods, services and enhanced standards of living.
It should also be noted that population growth is already slowing down. It is now half the annual rate of what it was in the 1960s: birth rates no longer have to be high to match high infant mortality, nor are children seen as a resource to help in the fields. The United Nations has estimated that the world population was growing at an annual rate of 1.14%, or about 75 million. This is already sharply down from the peak of 88 million people per year in 1989. Growth rates remain high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is interesting to note the transformation of much of agriculture in Latin America during the past decade, allied with the growth of indigenous fertilizer production and distribution sectors.
The Middle East is likewise capitalising on some inherent competitive advantages to develop an enhanced fertilizer export sector, which is helping to sustain the growing populations of Asia and other African countries. Even in Sub-Saharan Africa, a more encouraging picture is beginning to emerge as standards of governance improve and as numerous technology transfer projects to boost agriculture at the local level begin to bear fruit.
Latter-day Malthusians were proved wrong a generation ago as the Green Revolution gathered momentum. Will there be similar happy surprises around the corner when it comes to water scarcity and perhaps climate change? Can the current slowing down in agricultural productivity in China and India be reversed? Will urban lifestyle aspirations (on the western model) in China and India put unsustainable pressures on our global resource systems? There are no immediate answers to these vital questions, but the arrival of our seven billionth co-habitant on Planet Earth should accelerate our quest to enhance our collective food security and the sustainable use of our resources.
Wednesday, 7 December 2011
Wednesday, 5 October 2011
Bright prospects – but a big proviso
Agricultural commodity and fertilizer markets enjoy a symbiotic relationship and in general, what is good for one is good for the other. Fertilizer producers thus take heart as their agricultural commodity counterparts forecast a record harvest in order to stave off another large drawdown of global grain inventories. Despite gloom and turbulence in the global financial and industrial sectors, agricultural commodity and fertilizer fundamentals continue to look healthy. Because world grain inventories remain depleted and prices are therefore high, farmers will need to plant record acreages in 2012. This in turn is expected to sustain the high shipments of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizers.
According to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), North American agriculture recovered from a wet spring and widespread flooding and enjoyed near-record harvests of wheat, corn and soya. Demand for all products has been buoyant, but the demand for corn for ethanol use in the United States was expected to rise by 100 million bushels, further tightening overall availability. Global corn inventories at the end of the 2011/12 crop year are forecast to fall to just 13% of projected use, the lowest percentage since 1973/74.
Global wheat supplies are expected to be 900,000 tonnes higher as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected world production. Farmers worldwide are expected to enjoy record harvests this year. USDA estimates that farmers will harvest 2.72 billion tonnes of the leading 16 crops this year, up from 2.64 billion tonnes in 2010.
High crop prices are the most powerful driver of growing intentions, and these in turn bolster the demand for fertilizers. On the debit side, high crop prices mean escalating food prices – at a time when many parts of the world are suffering from weak overall economic growth – and these high prices risk prompting social unrest as people are less able to afford basic foodstuffs.
Continuing population growth and the trend towards improved diets are helping agricultural commodity and crop nutrient markets avoid the worst of the volatility seen lately in financial markets. However, rather than sit back, relax and enjoy a sustained boom, fertilizer suppliers need to be aware of some longer-term issues that may assume critical importance within a generation and block the drive to sustainability.
The ultimate “game stopper” are finite resources: natural gas and other fossil fuels that can be converted into nitrogen fertilizers are finite, but substitutes can be found among alternative sources of energy. Phosphorus and potassium are also finite resources but as basic elements, they have no substitute. Some commentators have expressed great concern that modern high-intensity, single-crop agriculture is very dependent on finite mined resources, which if used wastefully, could easily cause a chronic problem with a half-century, but if used sensibly and sparingly, could last for several centuries longer. (Jeremy Grantham, quoted in the Financial Times).
Market-oriented systems have consequently been accused of failing to address the slow-burning problems of resource depletion and an inherent inability to adjust to changing long-term conditions. According to Grantham, “The finiteness of natural resources is simply ignored and pricing is based entirely on short-term supply and demand.” As the voice of the international fertilizer industry, IFA is aware that these issues have to be addressed. In its recently published analysis of food prices and fertilizer markets, IFA notes that in may countries, soils have been depleted of essential nutrients and crop yield growth rates are decreasing. In addition, higher consumption of animal protein, fruit and vegetables and the surge in biofuel production “require greater productivity to help preserve fragile eco-systems from conversion to farming” IFA concludes that sustainable intensification, relying on the better use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources, can maintain or improve soil fertility and increase yields while minimising environmental impacts.
IFA also provides a forum for the discussion of the long-term and less immediately obvious issues. At the IFA Annual Conference in Montreal, Lloyd Le Page, CEO of CGIAR (Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres) made the keynote address on the topic of Averting a future food crisis. He noted that the task for the coming decades is to ensure food security and improved livelihoods without sacrificing the availability of resources or jeopardising fragile eco-systems. He urged a holistic approach that combines best farming practice, diverse cropping strategies, conservation agriculture and efficient crops that make better use of energy, nutrients and water per unit of yield. Above all, there is the need for an approach that ensures a better understanding of the trade-offs between agriculture and natural resources and providing mechanisms for sharing benefits from the preservation or more sustainable use of these natural resources.
Le Page’s remarks suggest that accommodation can be reached with such commentators as Jeremy Grantham, who urges that the rationing and stretching of finite resources by sensible, far-sighted behaviour, we can fill the gap between today, when mankind is living far beyond a sustainable level, and several centuries onwards, when we may have achieved true long-term sustainability. Such sustainability will undoubtedly require improved energy and agricultural technologies. With intelligent planning, this could be reasonably expected.
According to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), North American agriculture recovered from a wet spring and widespread flooding and enjoyed near-record harvests of wheat, corn and soya. Demand for all products has been buoyant, but the demand for corn for ethanol use in the United States was expected to rise by 100 million bushels, further tightening overall availability. Global corn inventories at the end of the 2011/12 crop year are forecast to fall to just 13% of projected use, the lowest percentage since 1973/74.
Global wheat supplies are expected to be 900,000 tonnes higher as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected world production. Farmers worldwide are expected to enjoy record harvests this year. USDA estimates that farmers will harvest 2.72 billion tonnes of the leading 16 crops this year, up from 2.64 billion tonnes in 2010.
High crop prices are the most powerful driver of growing intentions, and these in turn bolster the demand for fertilizers. On the debit side, high crop prices mean escalating food prices – at a time when many parts of the world are suffering from weak overall economic growth – and these high prices risk prompting social unrest as people are less able to afford basic foodstuffs.
Continuing population growth and the trend towards improved diets are helping agricultural commodity and crop nutrient markets avoid the worst of the volatility seen lately in financial markets. However, rather than sit back, relax and enjoy a sustained boom, fertilizer suppliers need to be aware of some longer-term issues that may assume critical importance within a generation and block the drive to sustainability.
The ultimate “game stopper” are finite resources: natural gas and other fossil fuels that can be converted into nitrogen fertilizers are finite, but substitutes can be found among alternative sources of energy. Phosphorus and potassium are also finite resources but as basic elements, they have no substitute. Some commentators have expressed great concern that modern high-intensity, single-crop agriculture is very dependent on finite mined resources, which if used wastefully, could easily cause a chronic problem with a half-century, but if used sensibly and sparingly, could last for several centuries longer. (Jeremy Grantham, quoted in the Financial Times).
Market-oriented systems have consequently been accused of failing to address the slow-burning problems of resource depletion and an inherent inability to adjust to changing long-term conditions. According to Grantham, “The finiteness of natural resources is simply ignored and pricing is based entirely on short-term supply and demand.” As the voice of the international fertilizer industry, IFA is aware that these issues have to be addressed. In its recently published analysis of food prices and fertilizer markets, IFA notes that in may countries, soils have been depleted of essential nutrients and crop yield growth rates are decreasing. In addition, higher consumption of animal protein, fruit and vegetables and the surge in biofuel production “require greater productivity to help preserve fragile eco-systems from conversion to farming” IFA concludes that sustainable intensification, relying on the better use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources, can maintain or improve soil fertility and increase yields while minimising environmental impacts.
IFA also provides a forum for the discussion of the long-term and less immediately obvious issues. At the IFA Annual Conference in Montreal, Lloyd Le Page, CEO of CGIAR (Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres) made the keynote address on the topic of Averting a future food crisis. He noted that the task for the coming decades is to ensure food security and improved livelihoods without sacrificing the availability of resources or jeopardising fragile eco-systems. He urged a holistic approach that combines best farming practice, diverse cropping strategies, conservation agriculture and efficient crops that make better use of energy, nutrients and water per unit of yield. Above all, there is the need for an approach that ensures a better understanding of the trade-offs between agriculture and natural resources and providing mechanisms for sharing benefits from the preservation or more sustainable use of these natural resources.
Le Page’s remarks suggest that accommodation can be reached with such commentators as Jeremy Grantham, who urges that the rationing and stretching of finite resources by sensible, far-sighted behaviour, we can fill the gap between today, when mankind is living far beyond a sustainable level, and several centuries onwards, when we may have achieved true long-term sustainability. Such sustainability will undoubtedly require improved energy and agricultural technologies. With intelligent planning, this could be reasonably expected.
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Innovation to the fore
The globalised fertilizer industry of today is underpinned by almost two centuries of steadily enhanced scientific knowledge of human and plant nutrition, and matched by a spirit of inventiveness in the fields of production and the use of resources. These are the factors that largely put paid to the Malthusian theories which held that while unchecked population growth was exponential (1>2>4>8), the growth of the food supply was arithmetical (1>2>3>4). The Green Revolution showed that a long-term growth in human population could be achieved, and not only has that world population grown by 50% from 4 billion in 1974 to 6 billion by 1999, and to an expected 7 billion by the end of this year, but that population is also enjoying in ever more regions of the world an enhanced diet in terms of protein and variety.
Despite these achievements, there is increasing recognition among scientists, political parties and other decision-makers that mankind has now reached a fresh cross-roads. Indeed Malthusian theories have made a come-back in certain circles, and there are those who contend that the basic concept of population growth eventually outstripping resources is still fundamentally valid. The notion of Peak Phosphorus, for example, may be said to fall into the category of Neo-Malthusian.
The term Malthusian can sometimes have pejorative undertones, hinting at excessive pessimism, inhumanity or an inaccurate understanding of the future. Few of the agronomists or production engineers who have helped to propel the fertilizer business during the past decades would have devoted much intellectual energy to the merits of this debate: “Can-do” has been their by-word over the years, and there is no lack of that same spirit in the world fertilizer industry of today.
The world appears to be advancing towards a global population peak of around 9.5-10 billion by 2050. The issue not merely how to feed that increased population, but how we allocate, use and sustain the resources of land, water and raw materials that are harnessed to provide this diet. The continuing scaling upwards and evolutionary fine-tuning of present techniques and technology will be required, but radically new paths must also be sought. A few false trails may inevitably be followed in such a quest: it is a virtual truism that “Success always starts with failure.”
The challenge of finding sustainable ways of providing for the growing world population comes at a time of fundamental change in the concept of science itself. Whereas major advances in science had once involved little more than a keen and a vivid imagination, the process of invention today is a more convoluted one. It has been observed at a time when approximately 3,000 scientific articles are published per day, the percentage of human knowledge that one scientist can absorb is rapidly heading towards zero. The typical science paper or patent is now produced by a large team. Likewise in the commercial field, teams of engineers and/or marketing experts, rather than single visionary individuals, now account for most innovations.
Finding (and funding) new ideas is also getting more expensive. Some observers comment that scientific and technological innovation is becoming an issue of organisation. Commercial organisations may shy away from funding R&D work that promise few short- or medium-term returns. Nor do governments have deep pockets, and in much of the western world, governments seek to appeal to their electorates by promising lower taxes. This in turn can lead to cuts in the funding of scientific projects. Risk and enterprise become early casualties in such a climate.
One notable facet of the SYMPHOS Symposium was that academics shared the podium in equal measure with fertilizer industry experts on technology and commerce. This is a welcome development, as the grand challenges faced by mankind and society – be it climate change, energy consumption, food security or combating poverty – are transnational and cross-disciplinary. Addressing them requires collaboration between universities, commercial businesses, NGOs and other decision-makers, together with the pooling of resources at pan-national levels. This very pertinent point was made by Prof. Jean-Marc Repp and Prof. David Drewry of the European University Association.
Their conclusion applies to the increasing recognition of participants in the international fertilizer industry of the fundamental need for more research and greater innovation: all money spent on improved collaboration between stakeholders will add value by bringing people together, sharing knowledge and creating synergies.
Despite these achievements, there is increasing recognition among scientists, political parties and other decision-makers that mankind has now reached a fresh cross-roads. Indeed Malthusian theories have made a come-back in certain circles, and there are those who contend that the basic concept of population growth eventually outstripping resources is still fundamentally valid. The notion of Peak Phosphorus, for example, may be said to fall into the category of Neo-Malthusian.
The term Malthusian can sometimes have pejorative undertones, hinting at excessive pessimism, inhumanity or an inaccurate understanding of the future. Few of the agronomists or production engineers who have helped to propel the fertilizer business during the past decades would have devoted much intellectual energy to the merits of this debate: “Can-do” has been their by-word over the years, and there is no lack of that same spirit in the world fertilizer industry of today.
The world appears to be advancing towards a global population peak of around 9.5-10 billion by 2050. The issue not merely how to feed that increased population, but how we allocate, use and sustain the resources of land, water and raw materials that are harnessed to provide this diet. The continuing scaling upwards and evolutionary fine-tuning of present techniques and technology will be required, but radically new paths must also be sought. A few false trails may inevitably be followed in such a quest: it is a virtual truism that “Success always starts with failure.”
The challenge of finding sustainable ways of providing for the growing world population comes at a time of fundamental change in the concept of science itself. Whereas major advances in science had once involved little more than a keen and a vivid imagination, the process of invention today is a more convoluted one. It has been observed at a time when approximately 3,000 scientific articles are published per day, the percentage of human knowledge that one scientist can absorb is rapidly heading towards zero. The typical science paper or patent is now produced by a large team. Likewise in the commercial field, teams of engineers and/or marketing experts, rather than single visionary individuals, now account for most innovations.
Finding (and funding) new ideas is also getting more expensive. Some observers comment that scientific and technological innovation is becoming an issue of organisation. Commercial organisations may shy away from funding R&D work that promise few short- or medium-term returns. Nor do governments have deep pockets, and in much of the western world, governments seek to appeal to their electorates by promising lower taxes. This in turn can lead to cuts in the funding of scientific projects. Risk and enterprise become early casualties in such a climate.
One notable facet of the SYMPHOS Symposium was that academics shared the podium in equal measure with fertilizer industry experts on technology and commerce. This is a welcome development, as the grand challenges faced by mankind and society – be it climate change, energy consumption, food security or combating poverty – are transnational and cross-disciplinary. Addressing them requires collaboration between universities, commercial businesses, NGOs and other decision-makers, together with the pooling of resources at pan-national levels. This very pertinent point was made by Prof. Jean-Marc Repp and Prof. David Drewry of the European University Association.
Their conclusion applies to the increasing recognition of participants in the international fertilizer industry of the fundamental need for more research and greater innovation: all money spent on improved collaboration between stakeholders will add value by bringing people together, sharing knowledge and creating synergies.
A new light on Peak Phosphorus
Fact, fact, fact,” said Thomas Gradgrind in Dickens’ Hard Times. “Never let the facts get in the way of a good story,” say others with a point to make. Both adages may be applied in the continuing debate on Peak Phosphorus. This is a debate that has become rather heated.
To begin with a definition, Peak Phosphorus is the point of time at which the maximum phosphorus production rate is reached. Phosphorus is a finite resource with no known substitute. Some researchers believe that the world’s phosphorus reserves will be
wholly depleted within the next 50-100 years and that the peak phosphorus production level will be reached between 2030 and 2035.
One positive effect from the debate to date has been the stronger spotlight that has been shone on the issue of recycling P, especially via the greater recycling of human and animal wastes. However, the accurate determination of peak phosphorus is dependent on knowing the world’s phosphate reserves and the future demand for phosphate rock. One primary source of information in this respect has been the US Geological Survey (USGS), which has estimated that there are currently 62 billion tonnes of phosphate rock worldwide, of which 15 billion tonnes are mineable. Although widely used for predicting future peak phosphorus, the USGS estimates have raised many doubts about their accuracy: the figures have been obtained from foreign governments and have not been independently verified by the USGS.
The recent report by the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), summarised in Fertilizer International, suggested that there is no indication that phosphate production will peak in the next 20-25 years - or even within the next century. IFDC reached this conclusion on the basis of an entirely revised estimate of global phosphate reserves, of around 290 billion tonnes. This total included estimated product reserves of 60 billion tonnes. Assuming current rates of usage, world phosphate rock reserves and resources should be available for the foreseeable future, IFDC said. USGS subsequently revised its reserve estimates upwards.
IFDC’s intervention has by no means stifled the arguments pro and con, and it is clear that certain parties in the debate hold entrenched positions. Those who disagree with the Peak Phosphate theory centre their arguments on three prime points, as summarised in IFA’s position paper on the subject:
Phosphate rock reserves are a dynamic concept and are regularly revised upwards with discoveries of new deposits, technological advances and increases in commodity prices. Modelling of future phosphate rock demand has not been adequate to establish how quickly reserves could be exhausted. Nor have such models considered soil P dynamics or the need to build soil P levels up to a critical level that optimises P use efficiency by plants.
Predictions of Peak Phosphorus ignore the practicality of economic feasibility of P recycling and re-use. IFA endorses the IFDC contention that we are not facing a Peak Phosphate event. IFA also contends that attention should be focused away from a possible peak in P supply and more towards any potential peak in phosphorus demand. Since P accumulates in agricultural soils, P requirements do not increase linearly with agricultural production. “There is a need to increase P levels to a critical level that optimises P availability to plants while maintaining soil fertility,” IFA notes. “The steady improvement in soil P levels in Asian and Latin American countries, possibly leading to a peak in world phosphate fertilizer demand by 2050, is a scenario that has so far been overlooked.” IFA is following this line of enquiry further, having set up an industry-wide task force on phosphate fertilizer demand, looking at different consumption scenarios.
Meanwhile, Michael Mew, Director of Fertecon Research Centre has opened a fresh angle in the debate. Michael challenges the use of the Hubbert’s Peak Oil Theory to predict a peak phosphate event.
The phosphorus debate is undoubtedly to be welcomed, as it has caused many interested parties to stop and think. The fertilizer industry is keen to promote Best Management Practices, declaring its commitment to the sustainable use of all P resources and the encouragement of research and nutrient BMPs for better recycling of all safe phosphorus sources of organic and inorganic origin. Meanwhile, in February 2011, the Phoenix Phosphorus Declaration was issued, after scientists, engineers, farmers, policy-makers and others gathered to participate in the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University. They reached a consensus on the essential but finite nature of P, its key role in global food security and called for its responsible use and recycling.
From these various standpoints, there should in due course arise a vastly enhanced knowledge base on the phosphorus resources we have available, how best we may exploit them and how best we may conserve them.
To begin with a definition, Peak Phosphorus is the point of time at which the maximum phosphorus production rate is reached. Phosphorus is a finite resource with no known substitute. Some researchers believe that the world’s phosphorus reserves will be
wholly depleted within the next 50-100 years and that the peak phosphorus production level will be reached between 2030 and 2035.
One positive effect from the debate to date has been the stronger spotlight that has been shone on the issue of recycling P, especially via the greater recycling of human and animal wastes. However, the accurate determination of peak phosphorus is dependent on knowing the world’s phosphate reserves and the future demand for phosphate rock. One primary source of information in this respect has been the US Geological Survey (USGS), which has estimated that there are currently 62 billion tonnes of phosphate rock worldwide, of which 15 billion tonnes are mineable. Although widely used for predicting future peak phosphorus, the USGS estimates have raised many doubts about their accuracy: the figures have been obtained from foreign governments and have not been independently verified by the USGS.
The recent report by the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), summarised in Fertilizer International, suggested that there is no indication that phosphate production will peak in the next 20-25 years - or even within the next century. IFDC reached this conclusion on the basis of an entirely revised estimate of global phosphate reserves, of around 290 billion tonnes. This total included estimated product reserves of 60 billion tonnes. Assuming current rates of usage, world phosphate rock reserves and resources should be available for the foreseeable future, IFDC said. USGS subsequently revised its reserve estimates upwards.
IFDC’s intervention has by no means stifled the arguments pro and con, and it is clear that certain parties in the debate hold entrenched positions. Those who disagree with the Peak Phosphate theory centre their arguments on three prime points, as summarised in IFA’s position paper on the subject:
Phosphate rock reserves are a dynamic concept and are regularly revised upwards with discoveries of new deposits, technological advances and increases in commodity prices. Modelling of future phosphate rock demand has not been adequate to establish how quickly reserves could be exhausted. Nor have such models considered soil P dynamics or the need to build soil P levels up to a critical level that optimises P use efficiency by plants.
Predictions of Peak Phosphorus ignore the practicality of economic feasibility of P recycling and re-use. IFA endorses the IFDC contention that we are not facing a Peak Phosphate event. IFA also contends that attention should be focused away from a possible peak in P supply and more towards any potential peak in phosphorus demand. Since P accumulates in agricultural soils, P requirements do not increase linearly with agricultural production. “There is a need to increase P levels to a critical level that optimises P availability to plants while maintaining soil fertility,” IFA notes. “The steady improvement in soil P levels in Asian and Latin American countries, possibly leading to a peak in world phosphate fertilizer demand by 2050, is a scenario that has so far been overlooked.” IFA is following this line of enquiry further, having set up an industry-wide task force on phosphate fertilizer demand, looking at different consumption scenarios.
Meanwhile, Michael Mew, Director of Fertecon Research Centre has opened a fresh angle in the debate. Michael challenges the use of the Hubbert’s Peak Oil Theory to predict a peak phosphate event.
The phosphorus debate is undoubtedly to be welcomed, as it has caused many interested parties to stop and think. The fertilizer industry is keen to promote Best Management Practices, declaring its commitment to the sustainable use of all P resources and the encouragement of research and nutrient BMPs for better recycling of all safe phosphorus sources of organic and inorganic origin. Meanwhile, in February 2011, the Phoenix Phosphorus Declaration was issued, after scientists, engineers, farmers, policy-makers and others gathered to participate in the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University. They reached a consensus on the essential but finite nature of P, its key role in global food security and called for its responsible use and recycling.
From these various standpoints, there should in due course arise a vastly enhanced knowledge base on the phosphorus resources we have available, how best we may exploit them and how best we may conserve them.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Stormy MENA waters
What began as protests against escalating food prices in various countries in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region quickly escalated into riots against long-established governments. Regime change was quickly achieved in Tunisia, while Egypt followed suit after three weeks of vigorous civil protests in Cairo and other cities. The desire for political change spread to Libya, but there the Gaddafi regime dug in more firmly and extremely violently, and at the time of writing, it seems set to prevail. Meanwhile, protestors have taken to the streets in the Arab Gulf states, notably in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. To date, bloodshed are been largely avoided in these states, but the undercurrent of civil discontent remains.
The term MENA covers the region that extends from Morocco to Iran, and includes the majority of both the Middle Eastern and Mahgreb countries. The region’s population of around 381 million is about 6% of the world total. MENA is well-known as a region of global economic and strategic significance because of its vast reserves of oil and natural gas. The MENA oil reserves are estimated to total 811 billion barrels, representing 60% of the world’s oil reserves, while the gas reserves of 2,868.9 trillion ft3 are 45% of the world’s total. Of the 12 members of OPEC, eight are within the MENA region.
The eruption of civil unrest and the threat, potential or actual, posed to the authoritarian governments the length and breadth of the MENA region inevitably reverberated in global commodity markets, above all in oil. Oil prices promptly jumped some 20-30%, reaching in excess of $118/barrel for Brent crude. Any element of instability in the MENA region prompts nightmare scenarios involving fears of a major cut-off in oil supplies, and memories remain vivid of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.
Tunisia and Egypt are not oil producers, but Libya is – and the country’s supply to world markets has been disrupted. However, while Libya has been an active member of OPEC, its output of 1.8 million bbd represents less than 5% of world output. A truly nightmarish oil scenario would hinge on oil production being withdrawn from global markets if Saudi Arabia erupts into civil strife.
Meanwhile, what has been the impact of the MENA rumblings in global fertilizer markets? The story has been a mixed one so far. Of the MENA countries which have so far been affected by the political upheavals, Egypt, the Arab Gulf countries and Libya are significant exporters of ammonia and urea, while Tunisia is a key player in phosphate markets. Overseas partners also have fertilizer investments in the MENA region, notably Yara in Qatar and Libya. In the latter country, Yara was obliged to suspend production at its joint-venture Lifeco complex at Marsa el-Brega. The facilities there comprise the Brega 1 and Brega 2 units, which have a rated capacity of around 900,000 t/a of prilled urea, while about 150,000 t/a of ammonia are normally available for export. (Fertilizer Week, 25 February 2011)
By contrast, production of ammonia and urea in Egypt was scarcely affected by the three weeks of civil unrest during late January and into February. Indeed, the period was one of softening urea prices as Egyptian stocks of unsold product were high, while US offtake slipped back. Egyptian prices of urea rose to $425/t fob in the first half of February but offers were later made at around $380/t, even then only attracting limited interest from buyers.
Supplies of phosphate rock and downstream fertilizers from GCT, Tunisia were disrupted for some time after the change in government, as labour disputes at the Sfax, Gabes and La Skhira production sites continued. It was reported that production at the GCT 330,000 t/a DAP plant was continuing at just one-third of normal capacity. These factors helped ensure continuing firm prices in phosphate markets, but there has been no spiking, as potential buyers have proven willing to hold back on their purchases rather than be stampeded into panic buying.
Fertilizer markets may thus be praised for keeping their nerve. However, the scenario for fertilizers remains uncertain, and not simply because of the unclear MENA political outlook.
Fertilizer prices have been buoyant because of the perceived low cereal stocks and escalating global food prices. Crop commodity markets appear to be particularly vulnerable to shocks arising from bad weather and the like, such as disappointing harvest in India, drought in China and floods in Australia. During the past 12 months, coffee prices have risen by 94%, corn has risen by 88% and wheat has gone up by 74%. (Financial Times, 18 February 2011)
Analysts meanwhile debate the short- and medium-term direction of crop markets. While some believe that prices have peaked, others say that they have further to go: they see food inflation as a growing problem in the medium to long term because supply will struggle to keep up with the growing demand from a rapidly rising population. These factors have ensured that fertilizer shares are performing well in international stock exchanges, as are those for agricultural technology companies, machinery and equipment and other inputs.
Combating food inflation poses a challenge for all concerned with mankind’s long-term security. The ultimate answer will come from further enhancements in agricultural productivity, food distribution systems and nutrient use efficiency. Riots over escalating food prices that spill over into efforts to seek new governments emphasise the urgency of the task.
The term MENA covers the region that extends from Morocco to Iran, and includes the majority of both the Middle Eastern and Mahgreb countries. The region’s population of around 381 million is about 6% of the world total. MENA is well-known as a region of global economic and strategic significance because of its vast reserves of oil and natural gas. The MENA oil reserves are estimated to total 811 billion barrels, representing 60% of the world’s oil reserves, while the gas reserves of 2,868.9 trillion ft3 are 45% of the world’s total. Of the 12 members of OPEC, eight are within the MENA region.
The eruption of civil unrest and the threat, potential or actual, posed to the authoritarian governments the length and breadth of the MENA region inevitably reverberated in global commodity markets, above all in oil. Oil prices promptly jumped some 20-30%, reaching in excess of $118/barrel for Brent crude. Any element of instability in the MENA region prompts nightmare scenarios involving fears of a major cut-off in oil supplies, and memories remain vivid of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.
Tunisia and Egypt are not oil producers, but Libya is – and the country’s supply to world markets has been disrupted. However, while Libya has been an active member of OPEC, its output of 1.8 million bbd represents less than 5% of world output. A truly nightmarish oil scenario would hinge on oil production being withdrawn from global markets if Saudi Arabia erupts into civil strife.
Meanwhile, what has been the impact of the MENA rumblings in global fertilizer markets? The story has been a mixed one so far. Of the MENA countries which have so far been affected by the political upheavals, Egypt, the Arab Gulf countries and Libya are significant exporters of ammonia and urea, while Tunisia is a key player in phosphate markets. Overseas partners also have fertilizer investments in the MENA region, notably Yara in Qatar and Libya. In the latter country, Yara was obliged to suspend production at its joint-venture Lifeco complex at Marsa el-Brega. The facilities there comprise the Brega 1 and Brega 2 units, which have a rated capacity of around 900,000 t/a of prilled urea, while about 150,000 t/a of ammonia are normally available for export. (Fertilizer Week, 25 February 2011)
By contrast, production of ammonia and urea in Egypt was scarcely affected by the three weeks of civil unrest during late January and into February. Indeed, the period was one of softening urea prices as Egyptian stocks of unsold product were high, while US offtake slipped back. Egyptian prices of urea rose to $425/t fob in the first half of February but offers were later made at around $380/t, even then only attracting limited interest from buyers.
Supplies of phosphate rock and downstream fertilizers from GCT, Tunisia were disrupted for some time after the change in government, as labour disputes at the Sfax, Gabes and La Skhira production sites continued. It was reported that production at the GCT 330,000 t/a DAP plant was continuing at just one-third of normal capacity. These factors helped ensure continuing firm prices in phosphate markets, but there has been no spiking, as potential buyers have proven willing to hold back on their purchases rather than be stampeded into panic buying.
Fertilizer markets may thus be praised for keeping their nerve. However, the scenario for fertilizers remains uncertain, and not simply because of the unclear MENA political outlook.
Fertilizer prices have been buoyant because of the perceived low cereal stocks and escalating global food prices. Crop commodity markets appear to be particularly vulnerable to shocks arising from bad weather and the like, such as disappointing harvest in India, drought in China and floods in Australia. During the past 12 months, coffee prices have risen by 94%, corn has risen by 88% and wheat has gone up by 74%. (Financial Times, 18 February 2011)
Analysts meanwhile debate the short- and medium-term direction of crop markets. While some believe that prices have peaked, others say that they have further to go: they see food inflation as a growing problem in the medium to long term because supply will struggle to keep up with the growing demand from a rapidly rising population. These factors have ensured that fertilizer shares are performing well in international stock exchanges, as are those for agricultural technology companies, machinery and equipment and other inputs.
Combating food inflation poses a challenge for all concerned with mankind’s long-term security. The ultimate answer will come from further enhancements in agricultural productivity, food distribution systems and nutrient use efficiency. Riots over escalating food prices that spill over into efforts to seek new governments emphasise the urgency of the task.
Tuesday, 1 February 2011
The food crisis is back on the agenda
Most fertilizer suppliers and traders can look back on 2010 as a very satisfactory year for business, reflecting the buoyancy of commodity markets overall. Consumption for the year is expected to show a worldwide increase of some 4.5% over 2009, with notably higher increases evident among the economic pace-setters of China, India and Brazil. Across the nutrient sectors, fertilizer supply and demand are in good balance and prices have continued to firm, boosting company margins. Fertilizer producers and traders can draw particular satisfaction from the uplift in prices throughout the past year. At the start of 2010, urea prices were around $265-272/t fob Yuzhny. Urea began trading in 2011 at around $377/t – a year-on-year uplift of around 41%. The gains posted in the phosphate sector were even higher. The Tampa DAP benchmark price was in the $390-395/t fob range in early January 2010: the January 2011 equivalent was
$597-600/t – a year-on-year gain of 52%.
Only in the potash sector did average prices remain static, the old year ending as it began, with spot-market KCl being quoted at around $390/t fob Vancouver. The leading potash suppliers rolled most contracts over on previous price levels or else posted very marginal increases. However, all this is set to change in 2011 as buyers appear more prepared to accept higher prices. Recently, Belarus Potash Company announced that it had settled first-half 2011 contract terms with China at $400/t cfr – an increase of $50/t on the 2010 price. The rise is similar to increases in the international market between the second quarter of 2010 and the first semester of 2011. Industry analysts forecast further rises in world potash prices this year, noting the strong demand for all fertilizers and high crop prices.
A farming bonanza is particularly evident in North America. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has noted falls in stock-todemand ratios, which pushed corn prices to $6.37/bushel in the first week of January, the highest level since July 2008. (Financial Times, 12 January 2011) The United States is the world’s largest corn supplier, meeting more than half of global import needs. As an important component of animal feed, corn availability has tightened in the wake of the continuing surge in demand for meat in emerging markets. Record ethanol production is also expected
to take up nearly 40% of the US corn crop.
Looking further afield, USDA notes a tighter availability for grain and oil seeds worldwide. The effects of the floods in Queensland, Australia are still being assessed but initial estimates are for Australia’s production of wheat to be down by 500,000 tonnes. By contrast, Argentina and Brazil have suffered from chronic drought,
making the prospects for the imminent crop harvests look increasingly fragile. The Financial Times reports that agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest global yield and stocks data provide no further room for weather problems. Although rice prices have been stable, the tightness of wheat, corn and soybean markets has led international market prices for these commodities to surge. The jump in these prices has in turn prompted the FAO to warn of a repetition of the 2008 global food crisis if they rise further, with a high risk of a recurrence of food riots in developing countries. Meanwhile, Libya, Jordan and Morocco have taken measures to control food prices after Algeria and Tunisia were wracked by violent protests.
Representing the worldwide fertilizer industry, IFA is monitoring these developments. Noting that the speed and extent of the recovery in fertilizer sales and consumption in 2010 surprised most industry analysts, IFA is projecting growth in global fertilizer consumption of 4.7% for 2010/11 and 3.8% for 2011/12, by when nutrient application rates would have recovered to the levels seen before the economic crisis of 2008.
It may be argued that among the several causes of the current low cereal stocks, reduced nutrition application rates in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 crisis have led to the lower crop yields reported in the United States and several other strategic cereal exporters. Now that the demand for nutrients has revived and is set to rise further, could fertilizers again be a limiting factor that holds back the growth in food production that will be vital in feeding a growing world population? IFA believes not, stating that the fertilizer industry has learned the lessons of the earlier food crisis and is undertaking extensive development projects that will add new production capacity.
According to IFA’s estimates, between 2010 and 2015, some 55 urea units, 20 potash expansion projects and 40 processed phosphate facilities are planned for completion worldwide. Having spent an estimated aggregate cost of nearly $40 billion on new capacity for the three major nutrients since 2008, the industry is set to invest a further $80 billion in bringing new capacity on stream. While global urea capacity is projected to expand by 30% between 2009 and 2014, and potash and phosphates capacity by 25% and 31% respectively during the same period, supply/demand balances may well remain tight if global nutrient demand continues to rise at the current robust rates. The challenge furthermore remains to ensure that farmers everywhere in the world can
procure the nutrients they need at affordable prices.
$597-600/t – a year-on-year gain of 52%.
Only in the potash sector did average prices remain static, the old year ending as it began, with spot-market KCl being quoted at around $390/t fob Vancouver. The leading potash suppliers rolled most contracts over on previous price levels or else posted very marginal increases. However, all this is set to change in 2011 as buyers appear more prepared to accept higher prices. Recently, Belarus Potash Company announced that it had settled first-half 2011 contract terms with China at $400/t cfr – an increase of $50/t on the 2010 price. The rise is similar to increases in the international market between the second quarter of 2010 and the first semester of 2011. Industry analysts forecast further rises in world potash prices this year, noting the strong demand for all fertilizers and high crop prices.
A farming bonanza is particularly evident in North America. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has noted falls in stock-todemand ratios, which pushed corn prices to $6.37/bushel in the first week of January, the highest level since July 2008. (Financial Times, 12 January 2011) The United States is the world’s largest corn supplier, meeting more than half of global import needs. As an important component of animal feed, corn availability has tightened in the wake of the continuing surge in demand for meat in emerging markets. Record ethanol production is also expected
to take up nearly 40% of the US corn crop.
Looking further afield, USDA notes a tighter availability for grain and oil seeds worldwide. The effects of the floods in Queensland, Australia are still being assessed but initial estimates are for Australia’s production of wheat to be down by 500,000 tonnes. By contrast, Argentina and Brazil have suffered from chronic drought,
making the prospects for the imminent crop harvests look increasingly fragile. The Financial Times reports that agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest global yield and stocks data provide no further room for weather problems. Although rice prices have been stable, the tightness of wheat, corn and soybean markets has led international market prices for these commodities to surge. The jump in these prices has in turn prompted the FAO to warn of a repetition of the 2008 global food crisis if they rise further, with a high risk of a recurrence of food riots in developing countries. Meanwhile, Libya, Jordan and Morocco have taken measures to control food prices after Algeria and Tunisia were wracked by violent protests.
Representing the worldwide fertilizer industry, IFA is monitoring these developments. Noting that the speed and extent of the recovery in fertilizer sales and consumption in 2010 surprised most industry analysts, IFA is projecting growth in global fertilizer consumption of 4.7% for 2010/11 and 3.8% for 2011/12, by when nutrient application rates would have recovered to the levels seen before the economic crisis of 2008.
It may be argued that among the several causes of the current low cereal stocks, reduced nutrition application rates in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 crisis have led to the lower crop yields reported in the United States and several other strategic cereal exporters. Now that the demand for nutrients has revived and is set to rise further, could fertilizers again be a limiting factor that holds back the growth in food production that will be vital in feeding a growing world population? IFA believes not, stating that the fertilizer industry has learned the lessons of the earlier food crisis and is undertaking extensive development projects that will add new production capacity.
According to IFA’s estimates, between 2010 and 2015, some 55 urea units, 20 potash expansion projects and 40 processed phosphate facilities are planned for completion worldwide. Having spent an estimated aggregate cost of nearly $40 billion on new capacity for the three major nutrients since 2008, the industry is set to invest a further $80 billion in bringing new capacity on stream. While global urea capacity is projected to expand by 30% between 2009 and 2014, and potash and phosphates capacity by 25% and 31% respectively during the same period, supply/demand balances may well remain tight if global nutrient demand continues to rise at the current robust rates. The challenge furthermore remains to ensure that farmers everywhere in the world can
procure the nutrients they need at affordable prices.
Monday, 15 November 2010
So you want to be a fertilizer producer….
The international fertilizer industry appears to be getting back on its feet after the downturn that followed the global credit crunch of 2008. Demand has picked up in all key consuming regions; capacity utilisation has improved; prices of all leading nutrients are firm and are expected to remain so for the immediately foreseeable future; and the leading producers are again reporting healthy earnings and margins. In effect, the global fertilizer industry is carrying on where it left off in mid-2008.
These factors create a very sound climate for new investment, and there is no lack of new participants who are keen to enter the fertilizer and associated raw materials industries. The list of new projects and proposals around the world continues to mount. Whether promoting greenfield or brownfield projects, potential entrants have not been deterred by the long gestation periods that are involved in converting the gleam of an idea into a positive cash flow. There are the various feasibility studies that have to be commissioned, environmental permits, negotiations with government and local interests, the rounds of roadshows to present the case to potential investors, and much else besides.
The start-point and the common denominator in so many of the brochures that are being published to appeal to investors are the FAO’s forecasts of population growth and the consequent impact on the demand for food and fibre. Global population is expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, compared with around 6.0 billion today, and this in turn will require world food production to rise by 70% during this period, FAO states. Food production in the developing world would furthermore need to double.
Some analysts contend that the FAO under-estimates the food production requirements, as no account is taken of any increase in agricultural production for biofuels. Another factor is the continuing advance towards higher protein diets, away from grains, which requires the intensification of agriculture. As The Population Institute observes, the projected 70% increase in food production will have to overcome rising energy prices, the depletion of underground aquifers, loss of farmland to urbanisation and the potentially adverse impacts arising from climate change. In other words, for the increase in world population to be sustained, there must be a step-change in agricultural productivity.
The International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) picks up the baton: fertilizers are the primary catalysts that will achieve this higher agricultural productivity, as they did in the previous decades of the original Green Revolution. The FAO forecasts translate into a steady increase in the global demand for nutrients, in the order of between 2.5-3% per year for the foreseeable future. In developing markets, that percentage may be even higher, at up to 7%/year.
The prospect of steady demand growth, sustained over the life of a project, is exactly what investors like to hear. However, in addition to the time that must be consumed in the project permitting and financing process, there are other daunting barriers to entry, the most important of which is the sheer cost of setting up the business, covering the construction of the plant and associated infrastructure, securing markets for the final product, recruiting and training the operating staff. Greenfield fertilizer projects now have a price tag in excess of $1 billion. Account should also be taken of the potential responses of established producers in the sector to preserve their status in the market. Potential investors must retain their faith as they must wait for a minimum of at least seven years - and more likely ten - before a positive cash flow emerges.
“No man is an island” and similarly, no project is entirely isolated from the context of its impact on global supply/demand balances. Thus, IFA comments that in the nitrogen sector, there are close to 65 new plants under construction or being planned to come on stream in the five years to 2014. These projects equate to a net expansion of 37.4 million t/a capacity, which would result in an annual growth rate of 4%. In the nitrogen sector overall, IFA forecasts a mounting surplus, equivalent to 3% of global supply. Could this capacity increase have a softening effect on prices? Did the financial submissions take account of this factor?
In the phosphates sector, not only are large expansion projects being developed by established producers in China, Morocco, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, Brazil and Vietnam, but new potential production has been announced for the near-to-medium term by potential suppliers in Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Namibia. Peru has just joined the ranks of phosphate rock producers, and Saudi Arabia waits in the wings. The key to whether these projects affect global market equilibrium is the securing of offtake agreements at an early stage in the development stage.
The potash scenario is the most intriguing. There have been no new entrants among the producers for fully two decades, but that has been no deterrent to potential investors. Before BHP Billiton turned its attention to acquiring PotashCorp – the world’s largest fertilizer producer – it pledged its commitment to the greenfield project at Jansen, Saskatchewan. One industry analyst estimated that BHP Billiton would not break even on its $10 billion investment until 2026. This prospect has not deterred other junior potash producers from forging ahead with their planned projects and each hopes a steal a march on the others by securing blue-chip strategic partners and coming on stream first.
Investors in fertilizer projects – like punters at the races – will meanwhile sit tight and hope.
These factors create a very sound climate for new investment, and there is no lack of new participants who are keen to enter the fertilizer and associated raw materials industries. The list of new projects and proposals around the world continues to mount. Whether promoting greenfield or brownfield projects, potential entrants have not been deterred by the long gestation periods that are involved in converting the gleam of an idea into a positive cash flow. There are the various feasibility studies that have to be commissioned, environmental permits, negotiations with government and local interests, the rounds of roadshows to present the case to potential investors, and much else besides.
The start-point and the common denominator in so many of the brochures that are being published to appeal to investors are the FAO’s forecasts of population growth and the consequent impact on the demand for food and fibre. Global population is expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, compared with around 6.0 billion today, and this in turn will require world food production to rise by 70% during this period, FAO states. Food production in the developing world would furthermore need to double.
Some analysts contend that the FAO under-estimates the food production requirements, as no account is taken of any increase in agricultural production for biofuels. Another factor is the continuing advance towards higher protein diets, away from grains, which requires the intensification of agriculture. As The Population Institute observes, the projected 70% increase in food production will have to overcome rising energy prices, the depletion of underground aquifers, loss of farmland to urbanisation and the potentially adverse impacts arising from climate change. In other words, for the increase in world population to be sustained, there must be a step-change in agricultural productivity.
The International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) picks up the baton: fertilizers are the primary catalysts that will achieve this higher agricultural productivity, as they did in the previous decades of the original Green Revolution. The FAO forecasts translate into a steady increase in the global demand for nutrients, in the order of between 2.5-3% per year for the foreseeable future. In developing markets, that percentage may be even higher, at up to 7%/year.
The prospect of steady demand growth, sustained over the life of a project, is exactly what investors like to hear. However, in addition to the time that must be consumed in the project permitting and financing process, there are other daunting barriers to entry, the most important of which is the sheer cost of setting up the business, covering the construction of the plant and associated infrastructure, securing markets for the final product, recruiting and training the operating staff. Greenfield fertilizer projects now have a price tag in excess of $1 billion. Account should also be taken of the potential responses of established producers in the sector to preserve their status in the market. Potential investors must retain their faith as they must wait for a minimum of at least seven years - and more likely ten - before a positive cash flow emerges.
“No man is an island” and similarly, no project is entirely isolated from the context of its impact on global supply/demand balances. Thus, IFA comments that in the nitrogen sector, there are close to 65 new plants under construction or being planned to come on stream in the five years to 2014. These projects equate to a net expansion of 37.4 million t/a capacity, which would result in an annual growth rate of 4%. In the nitrogen sector overall, IFA forecasts a mounting surplus, equivalent to 3% of global supply. Could this capacity increase have a softening effect on prices? Did the financial submissions take account of this factor?
In the phosphates sector, not only are large expansion projects being developed by established producers in China, Morocco, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, Brazil and Vietnam, but new potential production has been announced for the near-to-medium term by potential suppliers in Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Namibia. Peru has just joined the ranks of phosphate rock producers, and Saudi Arabia waits in the wings. The key to whether these projects affect global market equilibrium is the securing of offtake agreements at an early stage in the development stage.
The potash scenario is the most intriguing. There have been no new entrants among the producers for fully two decades, but that has been no deterrent to potential investors. Before BHP Billiton turned its attention to acquiring PotashCorp – the world’s largest fertilizer producer – it pledged its commitment to the greenfield project at Jansen, Saskatchewan. One industry analyst estimated that BHP Billiton would not break even on its $10 billion investment until 2026. This prospect has not deterred other junior potash producers from forging ahead with their planned projects and each hopes a steal a march on the others by securing blue-chip strategic partners and coming on stream first.
Investors in fertilizer projects – like punters at the races – will meanwhile sit tight and hope.
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