There are seven billion of us

The parents of Danica May Camacho have extra cause for joy and pride. Their baby girl was born on Monday, 31 October 2011 in the Philippines and has been heralded as the world’s seven billionth baby. According to the United Nations, it has taken just 12 years for the world’s population to rise by an extra one billion, from the 6 billion that was estimated in 1999. In the space of barely 40 years, Planet Earth has seen a doubling of its population, and the rate of growth is expected to continue apace, to peak at just over 9 billion by 2050.

An uncertain scenario may prevail beyond that date, with some pundits suggesting the world population will turn into an ageing one that will fail to renew its numbers, and a period of overall population decline could be heralded.

For the moment, however, let us celebrate baby Danica May Camacho and what she represents. It is particularly apt that she should have been born in Asia, as this is the most populated of Earth’s continents, with over 4 billion inhabitants or 60% of the world population. The world’s two most populated countries – China and India – constitute around 37% of the world’s population.

Asia was just a few generations ago notorious for its vulnerability to famine, but we have seen in barely the span of a lifetime its virtual elimination from the region as countries throughout the continent found ways of nourishing their peoples. The impact of the Green Revolution involving the introduction of high-yielding cereal varieties and fertilisation technology is well known, laying the foundations for unprecedented levels of food security and the enhanced agricultural productivity that sustained a wholesale shift of population from the rural areas to new cities.

Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1 billion people or 15% of the world’s population. The fortunes of the continent have contrasted with those of Asia, particularly among the Sub-Saharan countries, where civil strife has exacerbated the region’s vulnerability to famine. Although many countries in Africa have the potential to feed themselves, agriculture has underperformed and significant pockets of malnutrition remain. Infant mortality rates are the highest in the world.

Not everyone is rejoicing at this latest population milestone. There is no lack of scientists who say that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in the usage of land, water and mineral resources poses the worst of threats to the ecosystem. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population was ratified by 58 national member academies in 1994, viewed the growth in human numbers with alarm and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of greenhouse gases, global warming and population, were aggravated by population expansion.

Others say that Malthusian arguments of mankind’s very limited ability to sustain significant population rises remain valid. While over the last 40 years we have seen a three-and-a-half-fold increase in food production (in no small part due to the contribution made by fertilizers), and that food supply had thus far been able to keep up with population and hunger, new pressure points are emerging, notably in the price of food. Some doomsayers have suggested that food riots in Africa and other regions were the harbinger of a worsening scenario, being a reflection of the fast growth in urban populations.

Although it brings social dislocation and often poverty, the shift of surplus labour from a formerly inefficient and over-crowded agricultural sector to the cities may generally be viewed as a positive development, ultimately making agricultural more efficient, while the cities become a much stronger market for farmer’s produce, while newly urbanised become ever aspirational in their demand for goods, services and enhanced standards of living.

It should also be noted that population growth is already slowing down. It is now half the annual rate of what it was in the 1960s: birth rates no longer have to be high to match high infant mortality, nor are children seen as a resource to help in the fields. The United Nations has estimated that the world population was growing at an annual rate of 1.14%, or about 75 million. This is already sharply down from the peak of 88 million people per year in 1989. Growth rates remain high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is interesting to note the transformation of much of agriculture in Latin America during the past decade, allied with the growth of indigenous fertilizer production and distribution sectors.

The Middle East is likewise capitalising on some inherent competitive advantages to develop an enhanced fertilizer export sector, which is helping to sustain the growing populations of Asia and other African countries. Even in Sub-Saharan Africa, a more encouraging picture is beginning to emerge as standards of governance improve and as numerous technology transfer projects to boost agriculture at the local level begin to bear fruit.

Latter-day Malthusians were proved wrong a generation ago as the Green Revolution gathered momentum. Will there be similar happy surprises around the corner when it comes to water scarcity and perhaps climate change? Can the current slowing down in agricultural productivity in China and India be reversed? Will urban lifestyle aspirations (on the western model) in China and India put unsustainable pressures on our global resource systems? There are no immediate answers to these vital questions, but the arrival of our seven billionth co-habitant on Planet Earth should accelerate our quest to enhance our collective food security and the sustainable use of our resources.